治疗窗（Therapeutic Window）

1. 潘金莲撑开窗户，撑窗户滴棍子掉下 去了，于是西门庆看到了，于是他们相遇了。如果 潘金莲同学当时没有开窗，那么她就不会遇到西门 庆。

2 如果没有遇到西门庆，那么她就不会被迫出轨， 那样武松哥哥就不会怒发冲冠为红颜，这样他就不 会奔上梁山。

3. 武松就不会奔上梁上，不会奔上梁山之后，哪怕 水泊梁山107将依旧轰轰烈烈，但是宋江和方腊的 战役，方腊也不会被武松单臂擒住。

4 只要武松治不了方腊，枭雄方腊就能取得大宋的 江山。

5 只要方腊取得了大宋的江山，就不会有靖康耻， 不会有偏安一隅，不会有金兵入关。

6 金兵不入关，就不会有后来的大清朝

Whether you are looking to start a new business or seeking a new career, understanding the dynamics of convergence is very empowering. It can position you to capitalize on upcoming opportunities, which are usually exciting and financially rewarding. I describe how I was able to take advantage of convergence in the article, “If you can’t find a job, try creating your own opportunities”.

Many of the greatest business ideas and inventions have been driven by a convergence between an emerging market need and the availability of a solution for that market need. Using technology as an example, when a technology becomes sufficiently affordable and available to address a growing market need, we reach a conversion point and a huge window of opportunity.

When the window first opens, there are not many competitors so margins are healthy. As the market matures, more competition enters the fray, margins begin to erode and the market becomes saturated. Eventually, the technology matures to a point where it is so low in cost that it is difficult to maintain a business model that worked when the window first opened.

Consider YouTube for a moment. Suppose that 15 years ago you had thought about doing what YouTube does today. It would not have worked because fifteen years ago, most people connected to the infant internet with low speed modems. It would have taken all night to transfer a video. PC’s were much slower and the applications to make videos were available only to a select few. Moreover, the price tag to host such a service would have been astronomical primarily because of the enormous data storage requirements and bandwidth costs.

On the other hand, if you had carefully looked at the market and the developing technologies, you would have seen that faster modems were on the horizon promising significant increases in connection speeds. In time, these speed increases would lead to low cost high-speed internet access. You also might have noticed that Yahoo Chat, MSN and ICQ were taking off like wildfire. So was instant messaging. This was the birth of Virtual Social Networking. Add to this faster PC’s, inexpensive video applications, affordable cameras and reasonably priced high-capacity hard drives. Now you have all the makings of a convergence. A window opens and entities like YouTube and Facebook jump into it. Do not doubt for one minute that some organizations like these were not looking ahead to this convergence and preparing for it.

Convergence happens all the time. Positioning yourself to take advantage of a convergence is always a good idea. An example today would be solar energy, or photovoltaics. Many factors play into this convergence. The price of solar panels is slowly coming down. They are becoming more efficient at producing energy and are smaller than previous versions. The price of oil, gas and hydro are all going up, as is their impact on the environment. Ultimately, solar energy offers the potential for clean energy at a much lower cost. The market size is enormous. Essentially, every roof in the world represents a potential sale. It wasn’t that long ago that Bill Gates said; “a computer on every desktop”. Today, someone out there is saying, “a solar panel of every rooftop”. If they aren’t, they should be!

You don’t need to start a huge company to take advantage of convergence. Perhaps you are a sales rep looking for a new career or a technician seeking a new challenge where you can apply your skills. Keeping an eye on technology developments and emerging markets that are one, two and five years out is a smart thing to do. If you see something that interests you, then spend some time every day researching this emerging market. Become well versed in all of the potential solutions that might address this market and then start talking about it. You will be seen as an expert or perhaps even a visionary and will be very well positioned to jump into that window of opportunity in whatever capacity you choose.

http://lifeasahuman.com/2010/mind-spirit/inspirational/convergence-seeing-the-windows-of-opportunity/

You know what your next big decision needs to be and understand what it will take to position your business to act. When is the right time to act?

Even when you are ready to act, there often is a finite Window of Opportunity in which you have the best chance of achieving your objective. This window is determined by growth projections at current levels of investment, minimum acceptable results and thresholds of new investment. A typical Window of Opportunity looks like the graph on this page.

Each Next Big Decision comes with implied time and financial constraints. When will current growth projections assure minimum acceptable results? At what point does it take an incremental level of financial commitment to sustain the growth? Are you prepared to invest more time and money to achieve your minimum acceptable results?

These are questions Fulcrum Partners can help you analyze and answer.